Mortgage market report - 2024

Please accept our apologies. We've been busy recently, so the summary of the Polish mortgage market from last year is coming a bit later than usual. Let us then get on with it.

1. VALUE OF MORTGAGE GRANTED IN 2024.
 

According to data from BIK (Credit Information Bureau, gathering information about loans from all banks and financial firms in Poland), the total value of the mortgage granted in 2024 closed at 87,1 billion PLN, which means the market finished around 1,5 billion short of breaking the record of 2021.

13,6 billion of the above total were mortgages granted via the "Safe Mortgage 2%" program, so the house loans taken at market rates were worth "only" 73,5 billion PLN. At the same time, BIK predicts the number will rise to 88,2 billion this year. And if we look at incoming numbers, they might be correct.

In January 2025, 28,31 thousand households applied for mortgages, with 441,46 thousand PLN being the average amount asked from banks. These numbers are respectively 25,5 and 3,4% higher than January the year before. Then, in February 2025, 33,11 thousand households submitted a house loan application for an average amount of 449,1 thousand PLN, with both numbers being 24,3 and 1,7% higher than the same month of last year. To sum up - households in Poland have applied for a total of 27,39 billion PLN worth of house loans in 2 months of 2025.

2. THE INTEREST RATE IN POLAND.
 

Sixteen months passed since the Monetary Policy Council decided to lower the interest rate. As of 25th March 2025, the base rate stands at 5,75%, and WIBOR3M at 5,85%. What does it mean for mortgage cost? As banks add their margin to the WIBOR rate, the variable rate mortgage starts from around 7,7%, while the 5-year fixed rate - circa 6,8% (banks' offers change weekly).

Based on the current macroeconomic situation, both within Poland and abroad, inflation predictions, analysis of historical cycles of interest rates, as well as political aspects, including comments from members of the Monetary Policy Council, below we will present you different scenarios that we can predict for the current year.

Scenario 1. The interest rate in Poland is falling this year at least 0,25% - highly likely (90% probability). The most likely variant of this scenario is that the interest rate will fall a total of 0,5%-0,75%, with the first drop to happen anytime between Q3 and Q4. There is only a small chance that the rates will fall even more in 2025, and/or the first drop will happen sooner than Q3.

Scenario 2. The interest rate in Poland is to remain at the current level until the end of the year - unlikely (9% probability). For this scenario to materialize, inflation has to remain at levels from the beginning of the year, with no signs of dropping in the future. However, we've already seen both PPI inflation and salary growth below market expectations, which will soon affect the CPI inflation (main point of reference) and put more pressure on the MPC to lower the rates.

Scenario 3. The interest rate is surging this year - highly unlikely (1% probability). Only an unexpected, critical global event could result in the inflation rate growing fast and potentially push the MPC to raise the rates. But, as we all experienced such events in our lifetimes, we could not ignore the existence of this scenario, regardless of how unlikely it might be.

3. CREDITABILITY IN 2025.

As we know, higher interest rates negatively affect the maximum amounts banks can lend to potential borrowers. As the rates remained flat for the whole of 2024, the creditability calculations also did not move much (besides raising periodically when promotional offers appear in banks). We will present it to you based on a few examples.

We assumed that the mortgage applicant/applicants are 30 years old, with no current credit liabilities, employed based on an unlimited work contract ("umowa o pracę na czas nieokreślony"), and (for scenarios with children) they receive 800+ benefits. Also, the applicant/applicants offer 20% of their own contribution (so LTV is at least 80%), the loan period is 360 months, and customers choose an even installment option. Salaries taken into account below are presented in net per month.

With the above assumptions, a single person with no children, earning 4 thousand PLN net monthly, could borrow a maximum of 245 thousand PLN. A single person with no children and a salary of 6,5 thousand PLN - 465 thousand PLN. And a single person with one child who also earns 6,5 thousand PLN - 449 thousand PLN.

A couple with one child, earning together 8 thousand PLN could borrow up to 460 thousand PLN. If the same couple would earn 12 thousand PLN - the amount would grow to 901 thousand PLN. And a couple earning 12 thousand PLN as well, but with two children - 860 thousand PLN.

A couple without kids earning 8 thousand PLN would be able to borrow up to 549 thousand PLN, while earning 12 thousand PLN would allow them to ask banks for a maximum of 859 thousand PLN.

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Best regards,

Loan-brokers.pl Team

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