Mortgage market report - 2023

As every year, the time has come to summarize the situation in the mortgage market in the previous year and to outline the developments that will be affecting the current year. 2023 was a year of rebound in the mortgage market, partially stimulated by governmental programs. Let's break it down into pieces.

1. VALUE OF MORTGAGE GRANTED IN 2023.

As per data from BIK (the Credit Information Bureau), the total value of the mortgage granted in 2023 is 63,9 billion PLN, in comparison to 45,4 billion a year before. At the same time, BIK predicts the total value in 2024 to grow to 72 billion PLN.

From the total value of the granted portfolio, 27,2 billion PLN went via the "Safe Mortgage 2%" program, and 36,7 billion PLN via standard mortgage.

January 2024 seems to confirm the rebound on the mortgage market, as even though "Safe Mortgage 2%" does not exist anymore (the program ran between July and December 2023), 22,58 thousand households have applied for a mortgage this month - 92% higher than January 2022 (13,25 thousand).

2. THE INTEREST RATE IN POLAND.

The governmental program was to some extent an answer to high interest rates blocking many first-time buyers from being able to take a mortgage.

For most of the past year, the interest rate in Poland stood at 6,75% - a level unseen since the early 2000's. Those who follow our page should know the reasons and the journey it took to reach this level.

However, inflation has been falling steadily throughout the year, from 18,4% in January to 6,2% in December, which allowed the Monetary Policy Council to lower the rate in September and again in October, altogether to 5,75%.

The market expects the rate to continue falling this year, first cut again in March. We cannot predict how fast and often the rate will go down, however, if we look at history, every time Poland got hit by inflation and the rate went up as a result, once the inflation plateaued and the interest rate started falling, the trend was irreversible.

We will keep informing you via our Facebook profile about the market expectations, trends, and so on, like in July when we signaled the September's cut.

3. "SAFE MORTGAGE 2%" AND WHAT'S NEXT?

"Safe Mortgage 2%" was one of the hottest topics in the public domain. The program attracted above 100 thousand households who decided to buy their first property using it.

We have explained this topic in detail here - as well as multiple posts providing our customer with updates, including the one about the program coming to an end against the initial plans behind it. Feel welcome to refer to these resources.

Even though the SM2% ended, the new government has announced it is starting to work on the new program, with the working name of "The First Apartment", and as the name suggests - also directed to first-time buyers only.

However, at this point, we cannot be sure about the program's launch - the soonest date provided by the Minister in charge of implementing it is July 2024. At the same time, some fractions of the current government, which is less uniform than the previous one, oppose the program. We should wait for more concrete information, and the actual law to be passed in the parliament.

Feel welcome to follow our page for more information about the Polish mortgage market (and more)!

Best regards,

Loan-brokers.pl Team

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